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A/B test ambiguo: vince B ma non sei sicuro · Data Analysis · Advanced
An A/B test on the new checkout has run for 6 days. Variant B converts at 4.4% vs 4.1% for A, a +7% relative lift, with about 3,000 users per group. The PM wants to launch B to everyone now. The p-value is 0.08. A promotion ran mid-test affecting only some users. The signal is promising but not clean. How do you decide whether B truly wins or you risk launching on a noisy result?
Un A/B test sul nuovo checkout gira da 6 giorni. La variante B converte al 4,4% contro il 4,1% di A, un +7% relativo, con circa 3.000 utenti per gruppo. Il product manager vuole lanciare B subito su tutti. Il p-value è 0,08. C'è stata una promozione a metà test che ha toccato solo alcuni utenti. Il segnale è promettente ma non netto. Come decidi se B vince davvero o se rischi di lanciare su un risultato rumoroso?
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